Analysis
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Crowded Waters: The South China Sea’s Next Big Flashpoint?
Analysis, Arms Race, China, Military Buildup, Military Conflict, Philippines, South China Sea DisputeThe South China Sea ranks high on any list of the world’s geopolitical hotspots. But though the region has been volatile for centuries, the last two decades have witnessed a subtle shift in the underlying drivers of conflict. Through most of the second half of the twentieth century, the biggest threats to regional stability were […]
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Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative
Introduction The arbitration case launched by the Philippines against China currently stands as the most significant, and most closely watched, development for specialists and observers of the maritime disputes in the South China Sea (SCS). To help observers navigate through this foggy proceeding, this article attempts to provide a focused overview of the arbitration case […]
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How China Exploits a Loophole In International Law in Pursuit of Hegemony in East Asia
Who “minds the gap” in the South China Sea? The gap, that is, created in international law concerning the use of coercion or aggressive force and the right of self-defense of victim states. China exploits this gap in the international law on the use of force to compel its neighbors to accept Chinese hegemony in […]
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The Real South China Sea Problem: The Shadow of China
Linda Jakobson’s recent report, China’s Unpredictable Maritime Security Actors, is an important contribution for China watchers, especially for those who seek to understand the relationship between Chinese actions associated with its maritime disputes in Asia and its broader strategic approach to the region. This relationship is an important policy question because observers, including myself, worry […]
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Overcoming the Impasse in the South China Sea: Jointly Defining EEZ Claims
The dispute involving China, Taiwan, and four Southeast Asian countries over territorial sovereignty and maritime rights in the South China Sea has been described as one of the world’s most complex and intractable international relations problems. Despite its regional and international ramifications, there is no clear roadmap for how it should be managed or resolved. […]
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Expert unmasks China strategy of ‘creeping expansion’
Analysis, China, India, Japan, Mishief Reef, Philippines, Scarborough Shoal, South China Sea Dispute, Strategy, USA, VietnamA prominent global security scholar has unmasked China’s “grand strategy” of gaining control of the Asia Pacific Region by “creeping expansion” rather than waging major battles. Dr. Alexander L. Vuving, an associate professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies based in Honolulu, Hawaii, writes in an essay posted by Commentators.com that China is creating […]
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Beijing’s South China Sea objective is clear: To extend control
Within China’s bureaucratic system, sometimes it is in an agency’s interest to compete with others, rather than coordinate, in order to advance its own bureaucratic power and receive more funding. Linda Jakobson’s recent Lowy Report, China’s Unpredictable Maritime Security Actors, highlights this phenomenon between maritime agencies. Such a bureaucratic shortfall could explain to some degree […]
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From “Assuring Freedom of Navigation” to “Drill, Baby, Drill” in the South China Sea
Analysis, Arbitration, China, Oil, Paracels, Philippines, South China Sea Dispute, Spratlys, UNCLOS, VietnamAs I predicted a while back, the United States has quietly ditched its old, underperforming pretext for confrontation in the South China Sea and is sidestepping into a new justification. I do not care deeply about America’s stake in the South China Sea so I have little interest in slogging through recent American & Chinese contributions to […]
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The South China Sea: Navigating the Most Dangerous Place in the World
Analysis, China, Japan, Malaysia, Military Conflict, Mutual Defense Treaty, Philippines, South China Sea Dispute, Spratlys, USA, VietnamWhen people ponder where the next major conflict might erupt, they often look to the South China Sea – the scene of the potentially most explosive, intractable, overlapping sovereignty claims in the world. What can the United States do to find a peaceful solution to tensions between China, the Philippines and Vietnam, and indirectly between […]