LONDON – On July 12, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea will issue its ruling on China’s claim to practically all of the South China Sea. And already the main military contenders are moving more forces into the region.

China’s Maritime Safety Administration announced that naval and air forces will carry out seven days of exercises in an area extending from Hainan to the Paracel Islands off the Vietnamese coast. The exercises will end July 11, just one day before the tribunal’s ruling is released, so they will still be around if things get more exciting after that.

They might well get more exciting, because the U.S. Navy’s Task Force 70, including aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, has moved to the South China Sea. Its task, says its commander, Rear-Adm. John D. Alexander, is “to maintain the seas open for all to use.”

The Chinese Defense Ministry’s spokesman, Col. Wu Qian, warned last Thursday that this is “an act of militarization in the South China Sea and it endangers regional peace and stability. But I’d like to say that the U.S. side is making the wrong calculation. The Chinese armed forces never give in to outside forces.” And on Friday President Xi Jinping declared that China will never compromise on sovereignty and is “not afraid of trouble.”

So the stage may be set for a serious U.S.-Chinese military confrontation if the Hague tribunal rules against China’s claim next week as expected. The U.S. military fears that China may respond by declaring an air defense identification zone over the whole of the South China Sea, like the ADIZ it declared in the East China Sea in 2013 in its quarrel with Japan over disputed islands there.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2016/07/05/commentary/world-commentary/showdown-looming-south-china-sea/#.V3_L9pN96YV