A plan to reclaim Scarborough Shoal lies at the heart of China’s evolving military strategy in the South China Sea, Abhijit Singh writes.
Is China about to reclaim the Scarborough Shoal? It is a question that has absorbed discussions in maritime circles recently. Speculation is growing that China might be planning to build a small permanent structure on Scarborough, located close to the Philippines’ coast, in which to base Chinese military personnel – a contingency that might result in a sharp escalation of regional tensions.
The genesis of this conjecture is a recent report in the South China Morning Post quoting “a source familiar with the matter” stating that Beijing was waiting for the completion of the G20 summit next month to start dredging the strategically-placed shoal, which is located close to key sea-lanes in the South China Sea. While China is refraining from any moves that might jeopardise discussions during the G20 summit (where the focus is likely to be on ‘regional peace’) Beijing is said to be working on a plan to begin reclamation work before the start of the US presidential election in November.
For Beijing, converting the shoal into an artificial island is a good way of emphasising its dominance over the Southeast Asian littorals. In the month since the UN arbitral tribunal gave its verdict rejecting Beijing’s historic rights within the nine-dash line, China’s military has assiduously built up its military presence in the South China Sea. An increased presence of warships and aircraft in the contested littorals has been complemented with efforts to fortify military structures on the islands. These include refurbished missile sites and reinforced hangers for military aircraft.