This opinion piece was published in The Manila Times by Rafael Alunan III on February 14, 2023. It delves into the growing security threats posed by China, specifically its plans to assert control over Taiwan and the South China Sea, and how the Philippines must prepare for potential military escalation. The piece discusses strategic defense measures and the need for enhanced military preparedness, alliances, and proactive action in safeguarding national sovereignty.
Over a week ago, U.S. Air Force Gen. Michael A. Minihan, who heads the Air Mobility Command, told his troops to get battle ready for 2025 when he expects the U.S. and China to clash. If war breaks out, his command that transports men, machines and materiel worldwide, would be targeted for a knockout.
He cites a “distracted America” in 2024 when the U.S. and Taiwan will each hold presidential elections, offering Chinese President Xi Jinping a golden opportunity to pursue his military agenda. Additionally, China’s civilian-military leadership is aligned, unlike America’s, which is a crucial element in prosecuting a war.
I concur, but I’d add another dimension. Recovering China’s renegade province would be in time for the PLA’s centennial in 2027, and a giant leap toward its goal of becoming the only superpower by 2049, China’s 100th founding anniversary.
In 2021, former IndoPaCom chief Adm. Philip Davidson said that a potential conflict is probable within six years. Last year, Adm. Mike Gilday, US Navy CNO, raised the probability of a Chinese invasion before 2024 (that’s this year!). State Secretary Antony Blinken believes China is pursuing reunification on a much faster timeline after deciding that the “status quo is no longer acceptable”.
Xi has repeated his call to “prepare for war” every year since he took power in 2013, urging the PLA to “resolutely defend national sovereignty and national security”. Considering China’s consistent track record, it should be taken at its word that it means what it says.
Xi also says that China will never promise to renounce the use of force, just like Putin who won’t renounce the use of nuclear weapons. He warned of “dangerous storms” urging the PLA to “dare to struggle” and boost their “fighting spirit” to defend national interests in a hostile political environment.
Last year, Beijing conducted massive military exercises after former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s high-profile visit to Taiwan. It continued its provocations this year including large-scale drills around the island. The PLA has clearly ramped up on Xi’s orders.
Last month, a suspected Chinese spy balloon was seen over Pangasinan. Two weeks ago, a spy balloon was spotted over the United States and shot down in South Carolina. A second one was shot down over Alaska. Another balloon is somewhere over Central America. Apparently, there have been previous sightings that went unreported until now.
China’s intensifying its clandestine activities from space, in the air, on land, at sea and beneath it, following Xi’s instructions to “prepare for war”. Chinese forces are destabilizing the Indo-Pacific. In the past seven decades, China’s clashed with the UN forces in South Korea, Russia, Vietnam, India and Japan over border and territorial claims. It’s raising the tempo of A2AD tactics in the West Philippine Sea impacting our territorial integrity, sovereign rights, human and ecological security.
In 2013, the Chinese language newspaper Wenweipo and the Chinese news agency Zhongguo Xinwenshe published the “Six Wars that China must fight in the coming 50 years”.
- The war to unify Taiwan (2020–2025)
- The war to recover the various islands of the South China Sea (2025–2030)
- The war to recover southern Tibet (2035–2040)
- The war to recover Diaoyutai and the Ryukyus (2040–2045)
- The war to unify Outer Mongolia (2045–2050)
- The war to recover the territory seized by Russia (2055–2060)
The “six wars” provide us with a compass where China wants to go, and explains Xi’s directives to get ready. The world’s no longer blind to China’s intentions. It’s shrewd, cunning, innovative and a master of timing. Its decisions to spill blood will depend on the full range of qualitative and quantitative factors impinging on its calculations for victory.
When China moves to take Taiwan, I’m betting that it will go for the Spratlys too. Watch Russia, North Korea, Iran and allied terrorist groups in their respective geographic spheres as well. Our worst case scenario is getting caught in a hybrid war:
- · modern warfare in the WPS and over our airspace
- · seizure of strategic territory, e.g., parts of Northern Luzon, Palawan
- · all-risk unconventional warfare here at home.
It’s no secret that we’re infiltrated and our national interests compromised. Our strategically located islands and sea lines of communication are rich targets. Our preparatory options for a hybrid war are:
- a) Reconfigure and uparm our armed services.
- b) Organize resistance forces per municipality, city, province and region.
- c) Maximize interoperability training with allied forces.
- d) Open our airports, seaports for repairs and replenishment.
- e) Provide allied forces access to our ports and bases.
- f) Build defense technology and industrial parks.
- g) Ensure all vital infrastructure to be in friendly hands.
That’s where EDCA makes sense as a force multiplier for self-protection. It’s in our national interest. China leaves us no choice after decades of empty rhetoric, ball dribbling, dishonesty and disrespect. Japan is also keen on a security pact. Why not? Add France, South Korea and Australia for good measure. The stronger our defense shield, the better.
EDCA, however, exponentially raises war risk that puts us directly in the line of fire. The best case? It could deter China’s hegemonic ambitions. Then again, it may not, which is why it’s wise to always prepare for the worst case given the deteriorating situation. What then should we seek in return? At the minimum, negotiate ironclad guarantees such as:
- Bankrolling the total annual repairs and maintenance expenses of the AFP, PCG and PNP.
- Swift access to energy, food, smart munitions, ammo stockpiles, manned and unmanned warfighting systems and assets (air-sea-land-space-cyber) at preferential terms.
- Continuous joint hybrid warfare training and sea-air patrols.
- Hardening our vital human security and military infrastructure.
We have a few years to be future-ready. There’s no more time to lose.
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