Why is China so bellicose in the South China Sea? I don’t believe it’s because it wants to hog all the wealth that lies under the waves.
I think it has more to do with a historical trauma and a perceived geostrategic threat. The historical trauma is the “Century of Humiliation” that China suffered between 1838 and 1948 when it was near zero as a naval power. Because of this weakness it was forced to conclude peace with invading Western powers on humiliating terms.
Never again! That’s what China says as it builds its blue-water navy at an exponential rate. Thus it prepares itself for what it perceives to be a looming geostrategic threat: the possibility of another era of humiliation, this time not necessarily in terms of a foreign invasion. It could be in the structure of a naval embargo of its seaports.
The backbone of the Chinese economy lies in the factories and business centers of its coastal cities. Starve those cities of their imports and block their exports with an embargo and you’ve crippled the Chinese economy.
Nobody has voiced that threat. It’s a Chinese perception based on history and geography — reinforced by the reality of US rebalancing to East Asia. China has been responding to that perceived threat by behaving as it does in the South China Sea. At times it acts the bully elbowing out smaller nations. At times it comports itself as the military upstart with hegemonic ambitions. But deep down it’s just another state seeking to ensure its long-term survival by acting on its own perceptions of the real world.
Hence, it wouldn’t be right to demonize China for what it’s doing in the South China Sea. But it would be harebrained to let China have its way, for it has chosen the wrong means to ensure against being humiliated again. It has resorted to draconian methods that injure the interests of neighbors and destabilize the region to the extent of risking war.
How to deal with China then? Fortunately China is not only a naval power. It’s also an economy in need of partners. US allies like the UK and Australia have shrugged off American disapproval and joined China’s version of the World Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).
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