Chinese and American officials increasingly talk about war over Taiwan and the South China Sea – could it really happen?

New York City – Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent talk of “preparing for war and combat” is just the latest example of tough language that has stoked fears of a military flare-up with the United States over two potential flashpoints: Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Last week, Xi told his military commanders in Guangdong province to “concentrate preparations for fighting a war”, in comments distributed by government-run media following a four-day visit to the south.

Meanwhile, retired US Lieutenant-General Ben Hodges said it was likely the US would be at war with China within 15 years thanks to a “tense relationship and increasing competition” between the world’s two greatest economies.

With sabre-rattling on both sides, two long-standing issues between Beijing, Washington, and others have come to the fore as potential flashpoints – the disputed South China Sea and Taiwan, which China views as a renegade province.

Al Jazeera spoke with US-China experts who said while all-out conflict was possible, there remained chances to negotiate, compromise and manage a competitive relationship between Washington and Beijing that did not need turn ugly.

“They’re both preparing for it, but it would take an incredibly stupid leadership in both countries to end up in a war between the US and China,” Bonnie Glaser, a former Pentagon consultant, told Al Jazeera.

Sharpening approach
Washington’s efforts to manage and accommodate China’s growing economic and military clout have shifted under US President Donald Trump, who has slapped tariffs on Chinese imports and accused Beijing of trading unfairly and stealing intellectual property.

This month, Vice President Mike Pence spoke at a conservative think-tank about cyber-attacks, Taiwan, freedom of the seas and human rights in a policy address that highlighted a sharpening US approach to China beyond the bitter trade war.

Pence said China was waging a sophisticated effort to sway the elections against Trump’s Republicans in retaliation for the White House’s trade policies. He vowed to continue exposing Beijing’s “malign influence and interference”.

China was deploying anti-ship and anti-air missiles on artificial islands in the disputed South China Sea, Pence said.

He also accused Beijing of bullying smaller countries and destabilising Taiwan by pressuring three Latin American countries to cut ties with Taipei.

Last month, the USS Decatur was sailing near Gaven Reef in the South China Sea, when a Chinese destroyer approached within 45 metres and forced the US vessel to manoeuvre to avoid a collision, the Americans said.

Washington sends warships on so-called “freedom of navigation exercises” through the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait to show they are international waters and counter Chinese claims, as well as bolster US allies in the region.

The Trump administration has struck two arms deals with Taiwan worth more than a $1.7bn combined.

In September, Washington slapped sanctions on China’s military for buying fighter jets and missile systems from Russia.

China has responded by calling off high-level military-to-military talks, cancelling US Secretary of Defence James Mattis’ visit to Beijing and conducting live-fire drills with bombers and fighter jets in the South China Sea.

While China’s economic growth has been slowed by the trade war, it is still expanding more than twice as fast as the US’ and the state is pouring money into new technologies, such as quantum computing, biotech and artificial intelligence.

According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, China has launched more submarines, warships and other vessels since 2014 than the number of ships currently serving in the combined navies of Germany, India, Spain, Taiwan and Britain.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/china-war-asia-inevitable-181029195111603.html