Where the incoming administration chooses to stage the next FONOP will say a lot about tactical choices.

Over at the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, Bonnie Glaser, Zack Cooper, and Peter Dutton outline a strong case for the next U.S. administration to stage its first freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) in the South China Sea near Mischief Reef. Given the large strategic questions surrounding the Trump administration’s overall foreign policy, there’s been little consideration of the tactical choices his administration could choose to make in the Asia-Pacific. FONOPs, perhaps more than any other action, will be a closely watched tactical move by the Trump administration.

A year ago, I incorrectly predicted that the Obama administration would venture to Mischief Reef after the first FONOP near Subi Reef and other features in the Spratly Islands way back in October 2015. The case for Mischief Reef is particularly interesting, given the feature’s geography in relation to nearby features in the Spratlys. Mischief Reef is notably the only feature containing a Chinese artificial island that is not within 12 nautical miles of any other feature. Moreover, one of the findings of the five-judge tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration back in July was that Mischief Reef lies within the continental shelf of the Philippines.

As Glaser, Cooper, and Dutton outline, a FONOP near Mischief Reef is rendered likely considering the details of the fourth and most recent FONOP by the USS Decatur in October 2016. The Decatur tested China’s illegal straight baselines in the Paracel Islands and, notably, did not comply with the requirements for innocent passage under international law. Instead, the Decatur‘s freedom of navigation operation asserted high seas freedom. (The reasons why this is the case are outlined in greater detail by the AMTI authors.)

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Indeed, if there was ever a FONOP to lay the groundwork for a high seas assertion in the 12 nautical mile zone around Mischief Reef — which is entitled to no special rights given the feature’s status as a low-tide elevation — the Decatur‘s operation did just that. As I noted a year ago, the Obama administration, given its hesitance in pushing China on the South China Sea issue at the expense of other issues in the bilateral relationship, “likely saw an operation near Mischief as too provocative for an initial freedom of navigation operation.” And there are real risks. For example, China could use the operation as a pretense to forward-deploy military assets to its artificial islands, including fighters that could potentially be used to enforce an air defense identification zone down the line.

http://thediplomat.com/2016/12/imagining-the-us-navys-first-south-china-sea-fonop-in-the-trump-era/