Jane Harman, president of the Wilson Center, represented California in the U.S. House of Representatives, where she served as ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee.
If China and the United States had Facebook accounts, their relationship status would be “it’s complicated.” And it’s gotten more complicated with the sudden resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, someone the Chinese admired, though they often disagreed. But just because it’s complicated doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities to achieve foreign policy objectives important to each nation.
The arrest in Canada of Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou at the request of the United States — and China’s retaliatory arrest of two Canadian nationals in the days since — is a fascinating turn of events. President Trump is taking full advantage of this circumstance, saying he “would certainly intervene” in Meng’s case as a lever to encourage China to make a trade deal.
This is both good and bad news. For a transactional leader who has typically seen deals as binary and unlinked, it is good news that the president is thinking about a scenario that isn’t just win-lose. This negotiating style has yielded little beyond photo-ops (consider relations with North Korea and Russia), which the international community has criticized as vague and short on substance. Indeed, since the “summits,” both Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin have continued their bad behavior without much consequence. Plus, the absence of preparation and a strategy means we may be missing other opportunities.
But connecting trade talks with China to the Huawei arrest is problematic. Under our Constitution, law-enforcement activities must remain immune to presidential interference.
Trump should, however, seek other opportunities to use “linkage diplomacy” — a concept most associate with Henry Kissinger, who suggested nations can identify overlapping interests to their advantage. Kissinger’s theory was that making progress in one issue area (e.g., arms control) was contingent on another (e.g., gaining Soviet help to end the Vietnam War). But linkage makes sense only if it fits into a broader strategy, and we don’t have one for China. The president needs one urgently.
A major component should be to establish a strategic dialogue with the Chinese. While we may not reach a grand bargain, perhaps a grand understanding could emerge — one that allows for a deal on trade, a reduction in China’s bad digital behavior and their help on the North Korean nuclear problem. Speaking at the Wilson Center in September, Kissinger himself suggested that China and the United States could agree on “concepts” and then work together toward achieving them. The president could actually enjoy a big win if he lets his administration set up such a dialogue in the right way. If he chooses a trade deal in isolation, he will leave a lot on the table. For example, if the president wants to solve North Korea, China must be on our side.