The Philippines is heading to the polls on May 13 in what could be seen as a referendum on President Rodrigo Duterte’s ill-fated decision to steer the country away from its traditional ally, the United States, and towards an alliance with the People’s Republic of China. Increased human rights abuses, allegations of corruption, inflation, and joblessness have also plagued the Duterte administration.
While Duterte himself is not standing for election, pro-Duterte control of the Senate will be decided, with major repercussions on legal questions such as Duterte’s preference for more federalism. Such federalism, in an already disaggregated nation of 7,641 islands, could make it easier for China to corrupt local officials and cheaply extract natural resources.
Duterte’s government has moved closer to China than any in Philippine history. He literally cursed U.S. president, Barack Obama, in 2016, calling him a “son of a whore,” and told Chinese President Xi Jinping that the Philippines was switching its allegiance to China. In 2018, he joked to an audience that included Chinese ambassador Zhao Jianhua, “if you want, just make us a province, like Fujian.”
More recently on April 26, Duterte signed 19 business agreements worth US$12 billion at China’s Belt and Road Forum. He promised at the forum, which is meant to facilitate global economic and political integration with China in the lead, to open the Philippines to easier business relations with the Asian powerhouse.
As part of that, Beijing is seeking joint border, tax and macroeconomic policies in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries, which would erode their sovereignty over time and increase China’s power.