MANILA — The Duterte administration’s “independent” foreign policy should not be belittled or underestimated, as it could “substantially” undermine the influence of the United States, a long-time ally and global superpower, in the region, the research arm of debt watcher Fitch Ratings said.

“Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s apparent foreign policy shift away from the US towards China could substantially undermine Washington’s geopolitical influence in Asia at a time when tensions between Beijing and its neighbors are rising. As a result, the US and Japan will increasingly attempt to cultivate Vietnam as a regional security partner in the South China Sea,” Fitch Group’s BMI Research said in a Sept. 30 report titled “Duterte’s foreign policy shift to undermine US’ geopolitical influence.”

The “rebalancing”—as described by members of Duterte’s Cabinet—of foreign policy is seen benefiting neighboring China, ironically the superpower brought to international arbitration by the Philippines over a maritime dispute on territories said to be rich in oil resources in the West Philippine Sea, in which Manila was later victorious.

“A major geopolitical shift in Asia appears to have begun in mid-2016, when Rodrigo Duterte became president of the Philippines, and this will undermine the US’s position to the benefit of China,” BMI Research said, noting that “Duterte’s predecessor, Benigno Aquino III, pursued a staunchly anti-China policy, as Beijing adopted an increasingly assertive stance towards its claims to the South China Sea.”

“Aquino bolstered the Philippines’ ties with the US and Japan, both of which are wary of China’s growing military power in Asia,” BMI Research further noted.

On the other hand, “Duterte has adopted a noticeably anti-American tone, while sounding more accommodating towards China.”

“This suggests that the Philippines’ presence in an informal US-led bloc of Asian nations aimed at counter-balancing China’s rise is no longer assured,” according to BMI Research.

The report noted that because of its strategic location between global trade routes connecting the Pacific Ocean and the West Philippine Sea, the Philippines had gained geopolitical importance. “The US first recognised the Philippines’ strategic significance more than a century ago, when it seized the territory from Spain in the Spanish-American War of 1898,” it said.

Even after ending its rule over the Philippines when granted independence in 1946, the US kept close ties with Manila, it added.

The latest manifestation of close Philippine-US relations was in 2014, when Aquino signed a 10-year Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with Washington, it noted.

In contrast, when the Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled last July that China’s historical claim over more than four-fifths of the West Philippine was invalid, “Beijing immediately rejected the ruling, regarding the court as being biased,” BMI Research pointed out.

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