It’s no secret what the mainland is doing in the South China Sea. No one is surprised when they hear of another dredging operation to reclaim an island, or when another runway pops up on satellite imagery where before there were only idyllic, turquoise waters.
The recent arrival of fighter aircraft along with evidence of anti-aircraft reinforcements is meant as a clear statement of intent. But there remains a very pertinent question which has had little attention – what can they achieve with this collection of runways?
On the face of it, the answer seems clear – to project air power in the region. China’s political goal is to claim vast swathes of the South China Sea marked out by the ‘nine-dash line’, a border of questionable historic merit. This claim would allow exploitation of the 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) established around sovereign territory as well as establishing China as the dominant force in the region.
China wants to maintain a presence on these islands to reinforce the legitimacy of its claims while filling them with aircraft in order to defend them. The problem is that, historically speaking, air power has a very poor record of achieving wider strategic goals.
China’s proliferation of South China Sea runways looks impressive, but air power has limits