China’s narrative vs the real world

TOKYO—The issue involving the South China Sea is of vital significance for East Asia. It is a priority not only in relations among Japan, the United States and China, but also in relations between China and Asean. It was thought that the US freedom of navigation operations and the ruling handed down by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) on the suit brought by the Philippines would open a path toward a resolution to the dispute, but China’s stance has basically been to ignore both developments.

With its claims, China is forming a sphere of influence by building naval bases in the shape of a large triangle, connecting the Spratlys, the Paracels and Scarborough Shoal to the west of the Philippines. If successful, China will basically seize control of the seas and the skies, facilitating easy access for its nuclear-powered submarines from the base in Hainan to the Pacific Ocean via the Luzon Strait. Since China has built bases on the Spratlys and Paracels, the next target is Scarborough Shoal. These moves have drawn widespread attention.

From China’s perspective, the narrative is completely different: The islands in the South China Sea were originally Chinese territory that have been unlawfully occupied by the coastal nations. Japan and the United States are meddling in an issue that should be resolved through bilateral negotiations between China and the other claimants. It is the United States and Japan that are complicating the issue.

Although we now live in the age of the internet, all countries create such “narratives,” and it seems difficult to achieve a shared understanding.

Immediately after the G20 Summit in Hangzhou last month, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a leading Washington-based think tank, announced the results of a study that mapped a total of 45 incidents—including the ramming of ships and small-scale skirmishes—that have occurred in the South China Sea since 2010. The results indicate that China’s Coast Guard and its predecessor were involved in 68 percent of the incidents. If one adds the Chinese Navy, China has been involved in 78 percent of the incidents.

China’s narrative vs the real world