Former Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio has sounded a sharp warning: Beijing may turn Scarborough Shoal (also known as Bajo de Masinloc / “Panatag”) into a permanent monitoring station — part of a broader “playbook” that China has repeatedly used to convert contested features into military footholds.Inquirer
In a recent statement, Carpio called on the Philippine government and its citizens to remain vigilant, arguing that the “nature reserve” label recently attached by Beijing is likely the first step toward full-fledged occupation and militarization.GMA Network
What Makes This “Playbook” Dangerous
- From reserve to base: Carpio highlighted past precedents — such as how China initially installed radar-weather stations on features like Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef under benign cover, only to later convert them into major air and naval bases.GMA Network
- Legal camouflage: By declaring disputed maritime features “reserves,” China aims to cloak its ambitions under environmentalism — which, Carpio argues, is a thin veil hiding territorial aggression.Inquirer
- Strategic timing: The recent push follows renewed diplomatic tensions and increased international scrutiny — making this a critical moment for Philippine foreign-policy and national security institutions to act.
What the Philippines Must Do
Carpio urges a multi-layered response:
- Diplomatic Alertness — The Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) must publicly reject the “nature reserve” misnomer and reaffirm that Scarborough lies within the Philippines’ sovereign entitlement.
- Legal and Historical Clarity — Use colonial-era maps, state archives, and international treaties (like the 1900 Treaty of Washington) to reestablish clear territorial claims — not only for the present, but for future generations.
- Military & Coast Guard Readiness — As China’s tactics grow subtler, the Philippines must ensure continuous patrols, supply runs, and visibility in contested waters to deter unlawful occupation.
- Public Awareness & Education — Inform Filipinos not only about maritime boundaries, but also about historical continuity and legal rights — so that territorial defense isn’t just a government priority, but a national conviction.
Why Carpio’s Voice Matters
As a key figure in the Philippines’ 2016 arbitral triumph at The Hague, Carpio blends legal authority, historical knowledge, and strategic foresight. His warnings should not be treated as mere political rhetoric — they are an urgent call to defend what is ours, with law, memory, and resolve.
In an era where “maps” are weaponized, clarity becomes power. And for Filipinos committed to defending their maritime patrimony, refusing confusion is the first act of sovereignty.