As the Philippines marks the 10th anniversary of the landmark 2016 Arbitral Award, discussions surrounding the future of the South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC) have gained renewed attention. Policy groups, legal experts, and regional observers are debating whether any future agreement should be anchored on the legal principles established by the arbitral ruling or pursue a different framework for managing maritime disputes.
At the same time, reports from coastal communities highlight a persistent gap between legal victories and realities on the water, with some Filipino fishermen saying conditions in traditional fishing grounds remain largely unchanged despite the ruling.
Manila’s Push for a New Rulebook Faces Challenges
A Vera Files report noted that efforts to advance a South China Sea Code of Conduct continue to face diplomatic and political obstacles despite years of negotiations.
The proposed agreement is intended to establish rules and mechanisms for managing disputes and preventing incidents at sea. However, unresolved issues involving legal scope, enforcement, and competing national interests have complicated progress toward a final agreement.
Think Tanks Call for an Arbitral Award-Based Code
Several policy advocates have urged the Philippine government to ensure that any future Code of Conduct remains consistent with the 2016 Arbitral Award.
They argue that the ruling provides an established legal framework under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and should serve as the foundation for future regional arrangements. According to these groups, a Code of Conduct should reinforce—not weaken—the maritime rights and entitlements recognized by the award.
Warnings Against Agreements That Could Weaken the Award
Concerns have also been raised about the possibility of future arrangements that may dilute the legal significance of the arbitral ruling.
Observers cautioned that any agreement affecting maritime rights in the South China Sea should remain consistent with both UNCLOS and the 2016 award. They warned against concessions that could undermine the legal position established through arbitration.
China Maintains Opposition to the Ruling
Chinese state media reiterated Beijing’s longstanding position rejecting the 2016 Arbitral Award and opposing efforts to use the ruling as a basis for resolving disputes in the South China Sea.
China continues to maintain that it does not recognize the tribunal’s decision, while the Philippines and numerous other countries continue to regard the award as final and legally binding under UNCLOS.
Fishermen Say the Victory Has Yet to Reach Them
While the arbitral ruling remains a significant legal milestone, some Filipino fishermen interviewed by Reuters said they have not experienced the practical benefits they hoped would follow the decision.
According to the report, fishermen from Masinloc, Zambales said they continue to avoid Scarborough Shoal because of fears of harassment and encounters with Chinese vessels. Some recounted being driven away from fishing grounds and said access to the area remains difficult despite the tribunal’s findings on traditional fishing rights.
Their experiences underscore a recurring theme in discussions about the West Philippine Sea: that legal victories, while important, do not automatically translate into changes on the ground—or at sea.
Ten Years Later
Ten years after the 2016 Arbitral Award, the Philippines continues to navigate the intersection of law, diplomacy, security, and livelihood concerns in the West Philippine Sea.
As negotiations on a South China Sea Code of Conduct continue, questions remain about how future agreements can preserve the legal gains achieved through arbitration while addressing the practical realities faced by coastal communities and maritime stakeholders.