Justice Antonio T. Carpio (Ret.) delivered a thought-provoking address during the 15th Virtual International Conference on the West Philippine Sea, highlighting the shifting global landscape and its implications for the Philippines and the broader international community. His remarks underscored the alarming shift in alliances, the potential collapse of international law, and the urgent need for the Philippines to bolster its defense and strategic partnerships.

The international order that has governed global relations since the end of World War II is unraveling. The principles enshrined in the United Nations Charter, particularly the prohibition of force in settling disputes, are under threat from major powers seeking to expand their territorial claims. Justice Carpio warns that recent geopolitical developments, including unexpected alignments in the United Nations, signal a dangerous shift that could embolden aggressive state behavior. For the Philippines, this means an intensified threat from China in the South China Sea. To safeguard national sovereignty, the country must prioritize military modernization, strengthen alliances with like-minded nations, and prepare for an increasingly volatile global order.

Key Points Summary

1. A Critical Crossroads in Global Politics

• The United States, for the first time in recent history, voted alongside Russia, Belarus, and North Korea at the UN General Assembly, refusing to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• This shift signifies a break from the US’s traditional role as a champion of international law and order.

2. The Undermining of International Law

• Russia and China have long sought to overturn the post-World War II international legal framework, particularly the prohibition on using force to settle disputes.
• The US’s unexpected alignment with these powers has given momentum to this destabilizing effort.

3. Implications for the South China Sea and the Philippines

• China may feel emboldened to enforce its ten-dash line claim, effectively converting the South China Sea into its sovereign waters.
• If China succeeds, the Philippines would lose 80% of its maritime zones and all island territories in the West Philippine Sea.
• Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei would also face similar territorial losses.

4. Rising Territorial Claims from Major Nuclear Powers

• The world’s three largest nuclear-armed states—Russia, China, and now the US—are asserting ownership over foreign territories:
  • Russia claims large portions of Ukraine.
  • China asserts control over nearly the entire South China Sea and parts of India.
  • The US is reportedly claiming the Panama Canal, Greenland, and Gaza.

5. Urgent Need for Philippine Defense Preparedness

• The Philippines must brace for heightened tensions in the South China Sea by modernizing its armed forces.
• Stronger military alliances with Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the European Union, and other threatened nations are crucial.

6. Budget Prioritization for National Defense

• Congress must stop diverting funds from the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) modernization program to increase discretionary spending (pork barrel).
• Justice Carpio calls for legislators to forgo their pork barrel for 25 years to ensure sufficient defense funding.

7. A Changing World Order Requires Strategic Action

• The erosion of the existing international order demands immediate and decisive action from the Philippines.
• While hoping for the best, the country must prepare for the worst by strengthening its self-defense capabilities.
• Protecting national sovereignty should be the top priority.

Justice Carpio’s address serves as a stark warning about the shifting balance of power and the potential consequences for Philippine sovereignty. His call to action underscores the urgent need for national unity, strategic foresight, and an unwavering commitment to defending territorial integrity.